Crude Oil Market Update

• Yemen’s Houthi group claimed to have struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, which has a processing capacity of approximately 0.55 MBpd with a ballistic missile on 27th Oct’26 reportedly causing a fire at the refinery and adjacent oil export terminal.
• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials on 26th Oct’26 in Tehran to de escalate regional tensions, with Iran describing the discussions as positive and all parties agreeing to continue dialogue.
• Saudi Aramco plans to double its overseas crude oil storage capacity, particularly in Asia, to strengthen supply security amid regional disruptions, with Saudi Arabia and Singapore announcing plans on 26th Oct’26 to store Saudi crude at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns where operations are expected to begin in the second half of 2027.
• OPEC+ is expected to maintain its Dec’26 crude oil production targets at its scheduled meeting on 1st Nov’26. The 7 core members- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are reviewing production arrangements with most continuing to produce below their assigned targets, while preparations are underway to establish production baselines and quotas for 2027.
• Russia and Ukraine began a temporary ceasefire around Russian occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations, including the supply of food, medicine and water to residents facing shortages, with the truce expected to continue until 31st Oct’26.
• Russian seaborne crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports including Kazakh crude transported through Russia are expected to decline by approximately 0.1-0.2 MBpd in Nov’26 compared with Oct’26, driven by higher refinery processing following maintenance, increased domestic diesel production under the US-Russia fuel agreement and ongoing shipping disruptions in the Black Sea.
• Commercial shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways reached a monthly record in Oct’26, with 28 reported attacks as of 23 Oct’26 and 113 cumulatively since 28th Feb’26. More than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) had reportedly been damaged since the conflict began, including 11 in Oct’26, while 12 ships were attacked between 5th and 11th Oct’26, marking the highest weekly total since the conflict began and increasing risks to crude oil shipments through the strategic waterway.
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude inventories declined to 282.6 mln bbl, their lowest level since Oct 1982, amid the government’s planned release of 172 mln bbl. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy authorised an emergency exchange of up to 0.4 mln bbl of crude oil to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana.
• Two tankers carrying 1.0 mln bbl of Venezuelan crude arrived at Corpus Christi, Texas for ExxonMobil and Citgo refineries under a US-North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) agreement which grants Washington rights to purchase 20% of NABEP’s production at cost and a 35% stake in its parent company.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: U.S.-Iran tensions remained elevated as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened regional security risks. However, Brent crude futures fell 1.7% on Tuesday, settling at USD 113.88/barrel, as renewed diplomatic engagement involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey eased some concerns over potential supply disruptions. Despite the decline, oil prices remained near six-month highs, reflecting continued risks to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Looking ahead, developments following the 3 November U.S. midterm elections could provide greater clarity on the direction of the conflict. A lack of renewed strikes on Iran could be sufficient to gradually erode the geopolitical risk premium, even without a comprehensive agreement.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up down 0.5% on a monthly basis as weaker trading activity during festive season capped support from raw material price surge.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 0.6% on a weekly basis as reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure. capped pressure from higher CPI reading and geopolitical tensions,
• Aluminum prices are up 2.5% on a weekly basis due to renewed tensions in West Asia capping pressure from recovery in GCC production.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Yemen’s Houthi group claimed to have struck Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, which has a processing capacity of approximately 0.55 MBpd with a ballistic missile on 27th Oct’26 reportedly causing a fire at the refinery and adjacent oil export terminal.
• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials on 26th Oct’26 in Tehran to de escalate regional tensions, with Iran describing the discussions as positive and all parties agreeing to continue dialogue.
• Saudi Aramco plans to double its overseas crude oil storage capacity, particularly in Asia, to strengthen supply security amid regional disruptions, with Saudi Arabia and Singapore announcing plans on 26th Oct’26 to store Saudi crude at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns where operations are expected to begin in the second half of 2027.
• OPEC+ is expected to maintain its Dec’26 crude oil production targets at its scheduled meeting on 1st Nov’26. The 7 core members- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are reviewing production arrangements with most continuing to produce below their assigned targets, while preparations are underway to establish production baselines and quotas for 2027.
• Russia and Ukraine began a temporary ceasefire around Russian occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations, including the supply of food, medicine and water to residents facing shortages, with the truce expected to continue until 31st Oct’26.
• Russian seaborne crude exports from Baltic and Black Sea ports including Kazakh crude transported through Russia are expected to decline by approximately 0.1-0.2 MBpd in Nov’26 compared with Oct’26, driven by higher refinery processing following maintenance, increased domestic diesel production under the US-Russia fuel agreement and ongoing shipping disruptions in the Black Sea.
• Commercial shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways reached a monthly record in Oct’26, with 28 reported attacks as of 23 Oct’26 and 113 cumulatively since 28th Feb’26. More than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) had reportedly been damaged since the conflict began, including 11 in Oct’26, while 12 ships were attacked between 5th and 11th Oct’26, marking the highest weekly total since the conflict began and increasing risks to crude oil shipments through the strategic waterway.
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude inventories declined to 282.6 mln bbl, their lowest level since Oct 1982, amid the government’s planned release of 172 mln bbl. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy authorised an emergency exchange of up to 0.4 mln bbl of crude oil to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana.
• Two tankers carrying 1.0 mln bbl of Venezuelan crude arrived at Corpus Christi, Texas for ExxonMobil and Citgo refineries under a US-North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) agreement which grants Washington rights to purchase 20% of NABEP’s production at cost and a 35% stake in its parent company.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: U.S.-Iran tensions remained elevated as renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia heightened regional security risks. However, Brent crude futures fell 1.7% on Tuesday, settling at USD 113.88/barrel, as renewed diplomatic engagement involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey eased some concerns over potential supply disruptions. Despite the decline, oil prices remained near six-month highs, reflecting continued risks to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes. Looking ahead, developments following the 3 November U.S. midterm elections could provide greater clarity on the direction of the conflict. A lack of renewed strikes on Iran could be sufficient to gradually erode the geopolitical risk premium, even without a comprehensive agreement.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up down 0.5% on a monthly basis as weaker trading activity during festive season capped support from raw material price surge.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 0.6% on a weekly basis as reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure. capped pressure from higher CPI reading and geopolitical tensions,
• Aluminum prices are up 2.5% on a weekly basis due to renewed tensions in West Asia capping pressure from recovery in GCC production.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan held talks with Iranian officials on 26th Oct’26 in Tehran to de escalate regional tensions, with Iran describing the discussions as positive and all parties agreeing to continue dialogue.
• Saudi Aramco plans to double its overseas crude oil storage capacity, particularly in Asia, to strengthen supply security amid regional disruptions, with Saudi Arabia and Singapore announcing plans on 26th Oct’26 to store Saudi crude at Singapore’s Jurong Rock Caverns where operations are expected to begin in the second half of 2027.
• Russia and Ukraine began a temporary ceasefire around Russian occupied Oleshky in the Kherson region to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries and civilian evacuations, including the supply of food, medicine and water to residents facing shortages, with the truce expected to continue until 31st Oct’26.
• On 24th Oct’26, Yemen’s Houthi group claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Aramco’s facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and pumping stations along the East–West crude oil pipeline. On the same day, the Saudi led coalition confirmed intercepting two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif.
• Commercial shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways reached a monthly record in Oct’26, with 28 reported attacks as of 23rd Oct’26 and 113 cumulatively since 28th Feb’26. More than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) had reportedly been damaged since the conflict began, including 11 in Oct’26, while 12 ships were attacked between 5th and 11th Oct’26, marking the highest weekly total since the conflict began and increasing risks to crude oil shipments through the strategic waterway.
• US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) crude inventories declined to 282.6 mln bbl, their lowest level since Oct 1982, amid the government’s planned release of 172 mln bbl. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy authorised an emergency exchange of up to 0.4 mln bbl of crude oil to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana.
• Chinese refineries processed approximately 13.99 MBpd in Sep’26, exceeding combined crude imports and domestic production by an estimated 0.53 MBpd and resulting in crude stock draws for the fourth time in five months. However, onshore crude inventories increased for a second consecutive week to 1.192 billion barrels in the week ended 19th Oct’26.
• PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical successfully initiated the complete unloading, blending and processing chain for Foshan Sanshui crude oil, expanding its operational capability to process this domestic crude grade.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Hormuz Shipping Attacks Intensify as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Stall

U.S.–Iran tensions escalated further on as Tehran threatened to target oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI infrastructure across Gulf countries if the U.S. and Israel resume military strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also claimed that seven vessels had been struck in or around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy infrastructure. Reports suggest President Trump is considering fresh strikes on Iran, while the US is reinforcing its military presence in the region with the deployment of a second aircraft carrier. These developments have heightened concerns over a wider regional conflict, while diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Tehran remain stalled.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up down 0.2% on a weekly basis as weaker trading activity during festive season capped support from raw material price surge.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are down by 1.2% on a weekly basis as higher CPI reading, resolving supply issues, geopolitical tensions, narrowing COMEX arbitrage, and inventory buildup in SHFE warehouses capped support from reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure.
• Aluminum prices are up 1% on a weekly basis due to renewed tensions in West Asia capping pressure from recovery in GCC production.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The Iran-aligned Houthi ​group in Yemen said ‌on 26th Oct’26 that it had attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude ​oil pumping stations ​and Riyadh international airport.
• On 24th Oct’26, Yemen’s Houthi group claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Aramco’s facility in Yanbu, the Rabigh refinery and pumping stations along the East–West crude oil pipeline. On the same day, the Saudi led coalition confirmed intercepting two ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif.
• Commercial shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waterways reached a monthly record in Oct’26, with 28 reported attacks as of 23 Oct’26 and 113 cumulatively since 28th Feb’26. More than 30 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) had reportedly been damaged since the conflict began, including 11 in Oct’26, while 12 ships were attacked between 5th and 11th Oct’26, marking the highest weekly total since the conflict began and increasing risks to crude oil shipments through the strategic waterway.
• On 21st Oct’26, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the US after 10th Nov’26, with discussions potentially taking place in Abu Dhabi to address a ceasefire and post war security arrangements.
• US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.06 mln bbl to approximately 412.5 mln bbl in the week ended 16th Oct 2026. Meanwhile, refinery crude inputs increased to around 16.6 MBpd, with refinery utilisation reaching 93.4%, indicating stronger refinery demand and providing support to crude consumption.
• Chinese refineries processed approximately 13.99 MBpd in Sep’26, exceeding combined crude imports and domestic production by an estimated 0.53 MBpd and resulting in crude stock draws for the fourth time in five months. However, onshore crude inventories increased for a second consecutive week to 1.192 billion barrels in the week ended 19th Oct’26.
• PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical successfully initiated the complete unloading, blending and processing chain for Foshan Sanshui crude oil, expanding its operational capability to process this domestic crude grade.
• Unidentified individuals shut the Hamada–Tahara crude oil pipeline valve near the Zawiya refinery on 22nd Oct’26, reducing production at the Hamada and Tahara oilfields. However, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) reopened the pipeline on 24th Oct’26, allowing crude oil flows to resume and supporting the restoration of production at both fields.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Hormuz Shipping Attacks Intensify as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Stall

U.S.–Iran tensions escalated further on as Tehran threatened to target oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI infrastructure across Gulf countries if the U.S. and Israel resume military strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also claimed that seven vessels had been struck in or around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy infrastructure. Reports suggest President Trump is considering fresh strikes on Iran, while the US is reinforcing its military presence in the region with the deployment of a second aircraft carrier. These developments have heightened concerns over a wider regional conflict, while diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Tehran remain stalled.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up down 0.2% on a weekly basis as weaker trading activity during festive season capped support from raw material price surge.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are down by 1.2% on a weekly basis as higher CPI reading, resolving supply issues, geopolitical tensions, narrowing COMEX arbitrage, and inventory buildup in SHFE warehouses capped support from reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure.
• Aluminum prices are up 1% on a weekly basis due to renewed tensions in West Asia capping pressure from recovery in GCC production.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iranian state media reported that seven oil tankers were damaged overnight on 22nd Oct’26, with four catching fire during oil transfers and three reportedly disabled by naval mines, raising concerns over tanker safety and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and increasing the risk of further disruptions to global oil supplies.
• On 22nd Oct’26, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi group claimed to have launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Saudi Aramco’s oil facility in Yanbu, Abha International Airport, King Fahd International Airport in Dammam and the Saudi Defence Ministry headquarters in Riyadh.
• Amid escalating Houthi attacks on 22nd Oct’26, Saudi Aramco instructed employees to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, while Saudi air defences intercepted drones targeting key locations, including the Shaybah oilfield, raising concerns over the security of the country’s energy infrastructure.
• On 21st Oct’26, the Kuwait flagged oil product tanker MT Al Dasma, carrying 21 Indian seafarers, was struck by an unidentified projectile approximately 11 nautical miles west of Bukha, Oman, while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a fire that was subsequently extinguished.
• India’s crude oil imports increased 20% MoM to approximately 5.33 MBpd in Sep’26, as Middle Eastern supplies rebounded to 2.8 MBpd, the highest since Feb’26, accounting for 54% of total imports. Meanwhile, Russian crude imports declined 14% to around 1.8 MBpd amid stronger competition from China and improved price competitiveness of Middle Eastern grades, particularly Iraqi crude.
• On 21st Oct’26, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the US after 10th Nov’26, with discussions potentially taking place in Abu Dhabi to address a ceasefire and post war security arrangements.
• US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.06 mln bbl to approximately 412.5 mln bbl in the week ended 16th Oct 2026. Meanwhile, refinery crude inputs increased to around 16.6 MBpd, with refinery utilisation reaching 93.4%, indicating stronger refinery demand and providing support to crude consumption.
• Following the US decision to ease certain Russia related restrictions, India is expected to maintain Russian crude imports at approximately 1.8–1.9 MBpd in Oct’26, broadly in line with 1.82 MBpd in Sep’26. Meanwhile, China imported around 1.49 MBpd of Russian crude in Sep’26, highlighting continued demand from major Asian buyers.
• Russia scheduled its first diesel shipment of approximately 40,000 tons to the United States for 22nd Oct’26 under an agreement between Moscow and Washington. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said further shipments would follow as supplies permitted, with planned volumes of 0.3 mln tons initially, 0.5 mln tons in Nov’26 and 1 mln tons subsequently.
• Russia’s crude oil production increased by approximately 70,000 bpd to 8.43 MBpd in Sep’26, compared with 8.36 MBpd in Aug’26. However, output remained around 0.87 MBpd below the year-earlier level, reflecting continued pressure on the country’s oil industry.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.
• Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported on 22nd Oct’26 that unauthorized individuals had closed an isolation valve on the Hamada–Zawiya crude pipeline, which transports crude from the Hamada and Al-Tahara oilfields. The corporation warned that a prolonged shutdown could force production stoppages and reduce crude availability in the near term.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Hormuz Shipping Attacks Intensify as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Stall

U.S.–Iran tensions escalated further on as Tehran threatened to target oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres and AI infrastructure across Gulf countries if the U.S. and Israel resume military strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also claimed that seven vessels had been struck in or around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the U.S. ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and energy infrastructure. Reports suggest President Trump is considering fresh strikes on Iran, while the US is reinforcing its military presence in the region with the deployment of a second aircraft carrier. These developments have heightened concerns over a wider regional conflict, while diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Tehran remain stalled.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 0.1% on a monthly basis as support from raw material price surge was capped by weaker trading activity during festive season.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are down by 2.2% on a weekly basis as higher CPI reading, resolving supply issues, geopolitical tensions, narrowing COMEX arbitrage, and inventory buildup in SHFE warehouses capped support from reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure.
• Aluminum prices are down 6.4% on a weekly basis due to recovery in GCC production despite renewed tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• On 21st Oct’26, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the US after 10th Nov’26, with discussions potentially taking place in Abu Dhabi to address a ceasefire and post war security arrangements.
• Saudi air defences intercepted a drone targeting a processing facility at Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield on 21st Oct’26,, killing two foreign workers and injuring two others, including an Indian national. Saudi authorities reported no disruption to oilfield operations, although the incident heightened concerns over the security of the country’s energy infrastructure.
• Middle Eastern oil exports, excluding Iran, averaged 24.6 MBpd in the week ended 18th Oct’26, exceeding the pre-conflict average of 23.3 MBpd. However, shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained over 30% below pre-conflict levels, as producers increasingly used Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea terminals, UAE export routes and offshore ship-to-ship transfers.
• China drew down crude oil inventories by 0.53 MBpd in Sep’26 as refinery throughput rose to 13.99 MBpd against combined crude imports and domestic production of 13.46 MBpd, while imports are expected to exceed 10 MBpd in Oct’26 amid moderating prices and improved supply availability, potentially ending the recent inventory drawdown.
• US commercial crude inventories fell by 3.06 mln bbl to approximately 412.5 mln bbl in the week ended 16th Oct 2026. Meanwhile, refinery crude inputs increased to around 16.6 MBpd, with refinery utilisation reaching 93.4%, indicating stronger refinery demand and providing support to crude consumption.
• Following the US decision to ease certain Russia related restrictions, India is expected to maintain Russian crude imports at approximately 1.8–1.9 MBpd in Oct’26, broadly in line with 1.82 MBpd in Sep’26. Meanwhile, China imported around 1.49 MBpd of Russian crude in Sep’26, highlighting continued demand from major Asian buyers.
• The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to increase the flow of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and help reduce record high global tanker freight rates, which have made US crude less competitive for Asian refiners.
• Russia scheduled its first diesel shipment of approximately 40,000 tons to the United States for 22nd Oct’26 under an agreement between Moscow and Washington. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said further shipments would follow as supplies permitted, with planned volumes of 0.3 mln tons initially, 0.5 mln tons in Nov’26 and 1 mln tons subsequently.
• Russia’s crude oil production increased by approximately 70,000 bpd to 8.43 MBpd in Sep’26, compared with 8.36 MBpd in Aug’26. However, output remained around 0.87 MBpd below the year-earlier level, reflecting continued pressure on the country’s oil industry.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Hormuz Shipping Attacks Intensify as U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Stall

U.S.- Iran tensions intensified as efforts to secure a peace deal remained deadlocked. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described an agreement with Tehran as extremely difficult to achieve, while Iran maintained that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington met its conditions. Tehran is demanding the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, the easing of oil sanctions, and an end to hostilities before substantive negotiations can proceed. Although indirect talks through Pakistan and Qatar continue, threats to commercial shipping and regional energy infrastructure have kept supply concerns elevated. Brent crude climbed toward USD 110/barrel on Tuesday, reaching its highest level since May.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 0.1% on a monthly basis as support from raw material price surge was capped by weaker trading activity during festive season.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are down by 2.6% on a weekly basis as higher CPI reading, resolving supply issues, geopolitical tensions, narrowing COMEX arbitrage, and inventory buildup in SHFE warehouses capped support from reduced rate hike expectations, high China premium, supply disruptions, and backwardation structure.
• Aluminum prices are down 0.8% on a weekly basis due to gradual recovery from GCC and stronger dollar despite tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterated Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, subject to the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports and an end to hostilities across the region. However, Washington and Tehran remained divided over the terms and sequencing of negotiations, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, leaving uncertainty over the reopening of the strategic waterway.
• Egypt signalled its readiness to provide support to Saudi Arabia amid escalating attacks by Iran backed Houthi forces in Yemen, following reported strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure. The developments heightened concerns over regional security and the potential for further disruptions to Middle Eastern energy facilities and shipping routes.
• Crude oil flows from the Gulf declined sharply to around 8.5 MBpd, compared with more than 20 MBpd in the previous week, amid escalating maritime security risks, with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels reported during the period.
• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 5 crossings on 17th Oct’26, comprising one inbound and four outbound vessels, compared with 11 on 16th Oct and 14 on 15th Oct’26. Separately, on 16th Oct’26, a Liberia flagged Suezmax tanker was damaged in a reported small boat attack near Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over crude oil shipment delays and potential supply disruptions.
• US decision to waive certain sanctions and tariff restrictions on Russian fuel supplies raised expectations of increased diesel availability, with supplies reportedly projected at 2.3 mln bbl in Oct’26, potentially rising to 7.6 mln bbl in subsequent months.
• The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to increase the flow of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and help reduce record-high global tanker freight rates, which have made US crude less competitive for Asian refiners.
• On 15th Oct’26, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery in Russia, triggering a fire at the facility, which accounts for nearly 5% of Russia’s refining capacity and supplies fuel to Moscow, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Russian fuel production and domestic supplies.
• Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on St Petersburg on 18th Oct’26, targeting energy infrastructure, including an oil terminal and an oil depot, triggering fires and causing casualties, according to local reports. The incident marked a further escalation in Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy assets.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: U.S.–Iran tensions remained high over the weekend, with fresh threats to commercial shipping and no significant progress in diplomatic negotiations. Iran claimed that two supertankers struck naval mines on Saturday. Washington and Tehran remain at odds over the terms and sequencing of negotiations, particularly Iran’s nuclear programme. Meanwhile, Egypt expressed support for Saudi Arabia amid intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, raising concerns about a wider regional escalation.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 1.4% on a monthly basis due to raw material price surge and stronger demand from auto sector.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 2.6% on a monthly basis as support from weaker job data, reduced rate hike expectations, several supply disruptions in Chile, backwardation structure was capped by progress in restart of Key Chile mines and geopolitical tensions.
• Aluminum prices are down 1.4% on a weekly basis due to gradual recovery from GCC and stronger dollar despite tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi reiterated Tehran’s offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, subject to the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports, the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports and an end to hostilities across the region. However, Washington and Tehran remained divided over the terms and sequencing of negotiations, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, leaving uncertainty over the reopening of the strategic waterway.
• Egypt signalled its readiness to provide support to Saudi Arabia amid escalating attacks by Iran backed Houthi forces in Yemen, following reported strikes targeting Saudi infrastructure. The developments heightened concerns over regional security and the potential for further disruptions to Middle Eastern energy facilities and shipping routes.
• Crude oil flows from the Gulf declined sharply to around 8.5 MBpd, compared with more than 20 MBpd in the previous week, amid escalating maritime security risks, with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial vessels reported during the period.
• Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 5 crossings on 17th Oct’26, comprising one inbound and four outbound vessels, compared with 11 on 16th Oct and 14 on 15th Oct’26. Separately, on 16th Oct’26, a Liberia flagged Suezmax tanker was damaged in a reported small boat attack near Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, raising concerns over crude oil shipment delays and potential supply disruptions.
• US decision to waive certain sanctions and tariff restrictions on Russian fuel supplies raised expectations of increased diesel availability, with supplies reportedly projected at 2.3 mln bbl in Oct’26, potentially rising to 7.6 mln bbl in subsequent months.
• The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to increase the flow of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and help reduce record-high global tanker freight rates, which have made US crude less competitive for Asian refiners.
• On 15th Oct’26, Ukraine launched a drone attack on Rosneft’s Ryazan refinery in Russia, triggering a fire at the facility, which accounts for nearly 5% of Russia’s refining capacity and supplies fuel to Moscow, raising concerns over potential disruptions to Russian fuel production and domestic supplies.
• Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack on St Petersburg on 18th Oct’26, targeting energy infrastructure, including an oil terminal and an oil depot, triggering fires and causing casualties, according to local reports. The incident marked a further escalation in Ukraine’s campaign against Russian energy assets.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: U.S.–Iran tensions remained high over the weekend, with fresh threats to commercial shipping and no significant progress in diplomatic negotiations. Iran claimed that two supertankers struck naval mines on Saturday. Washington and Tehran remain at odds over the terms and sequencing of negotiations, particularly Iran’s nuclear programme. Meanwhile, Egypt expressed support for Saudi Arabia amid intensified Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, raising concerns about a wider regional escalation.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 1.4% on a monthly basis due to raw material price surge and stronger demand from auto sector.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 2.6% on a monthly basis as support from weaker job data, reduced rate hike expectations, several supply disruptions in Chile, backwardation structure was capped by progress in restart of Key Chile mines and geopolitical tensions.
• Aluminum prices are down 1.4% on a weekly basis due to gradual recovery from GCC and stronger dollar despite tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The IEA lowered its global oil demand outlook, projecting a decline of 2.6 mln barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, with demand expected to fall by 2.5 mb/d year-on-year in Q4’26. High fuel prices, supply constraints and a deteriorating economic outlook are weighing on consumption, with diesel accounting for approximately 25% of the projected annual decline.
• Despite the weaker demand outlook, global oil supply risks remain elevated. The IEA reported that global oil supply increased by 2.5 mb/d month-on-month to 102.3 mb/d in Sep’26, driven by higher output from Gulf producers; however, renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes threaten to disrupt the recovery in regional exports and sustain volatility in crude oil prices.
• Crude oil transportation costs from the US to Japan surged to USD 81 mln for a 2 mln-barrel cargo (USD 40.50/bbl) in late Nov’26, nearly nine times the average cost of USD 9.1 mln last year, with freight accounting for over 40% of US crude prices compared with 7% in 2025.
• Tanker freight rates from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to Asia reached a record USD 34/bbl amid US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine war-related attacks, elevated insurance premiums and longer shipping routes, tightening vessel availability and increasing crude procurement costs for import-dependent countries such as India, while further squeezing Asian refiners’ margins.
• The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to increase the flow of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and help reduce record-high global tanker freight rates, which have made US crude less competitive for Asian refiners.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Middle East tensions escalated as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued, while Iran intensified disruptions to commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least five maritime incidents reported within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 0.8% to USD 106.58/barrel amid renewed Gulf supply concerns.

US central bank viewed inflation as the biggest risk to their outlook, with most participants assessed that another increase in the fed funds target range would likely be appropriate by year end. This led to a higher Treasury yields ,strengthening the dollar’s interest rate differentials. However, September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29K, well below expectations, adding to expectations that the Fed may have less scope for October Fed rate hike, along with dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, further limited the dollar’s upside.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 1.4% on a monthly basis due to raw material price surge and stronger demand from auto sector.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 1.6% on a weekly basis as support from weaker job data, reduced rate hike expectations, several supply disruptions in Chile (Escondida, Radomiro Tomic, and Centinela), backwardation structure was capped by progress in Grasberg repairs and geopolitical tensions.
• Aluminum prices are down 3.1% due to gradual recovery from GCC and stronger dollar despite tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow fleet vessels to increase the flow of crude oil and petroleum products from the Gulf and help reduce record-high global tanker freight rates, which have made US crude less competitive for Asian refiners.
• As of 12th Oct’26, crude transportation costs surged to over 80 mln USD per 2 mln bbl cargo from the Americas to Asia (about 40 USD/bbl) and 24.50 USD/bbl from the US Gulf Coast to Europe, compared with around 4 USD/bbl before the Iran war, trapping discounted heavy crude in the Americas despite US refinery utilization reaching a 28 year high of 93.5%.
• Freight rates for Russian Urals crude exports to India surged to record highs in early Oct’26, with Black Sea–India Suezmax voyage costs rising to 27–30 mln USD from around 19 mln USD in Sep’26, pushing freight costs to approximately 30 USD/bbl.
• Baltic–western India Aframax freight rates also increased to 21–23 mln USD per voyage, up from 13–16 mln USD in Sep’26, while Black Sea–Mediterranean rates nearly doubled to WS 1,002.5 from around WS 500, raising export costs for Russian crude shipments to Asia.
• Rising tanker freight rates and limited US refining capacity have created a surplus of heavy crude across the United States, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela. Shipping a supertanker from the US Gulf Coast to Asia has become as expensive as 80 mln USD, equivalent to approximately 40 USD /bbl. These transportation and refining constraints are forcing producers to accumulate crude inventories even as buyers in Asia and Europe face supply shortages.
• US President Donald Trump stated that Washington would not launch an attack on Iran before the 3rd Nov’26 midterm elections, citing ongoing productive discussions with Tehran aimed at resolving the conflict.
• US President Donald Trump proposed an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on 11th Oct’26 , urging both sides to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, including oil refineries. Ukraine expressed willingness to suspend refinery strikes if Russia stopped attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, although Moscow had not officially confirmed the agreement.
• US announced an agreement for Russia to deliver more than 0.3 mln tons of diesel initially, followed by a further 0.5 mln tons in Nov’26 and an additional 1 mln tons thereafter. To facilitate these shipments, Washington temporarily authorised Russian diesel imports under a US Treasury license valid until 7th Apr’27.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis

Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 0.92–1.07 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 4.10 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks continue to progress positively, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz gradually normalizing over the next 4–5 weeks. Supply recovers steadily, while demand improves at a slower pace and remains below pre-war expectations, resulting in a moderate market surplus.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): The Strait of Hormuz normalizes over the next 4–5 weeks, supporting a gradual recovery in oil exports and supply. Demand rebounds more strongly than in Scenario 1, reducing the market surplus, although overall consumption remains below pre-war levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop:

War Front: Middle East tensions escalated as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continued, while Iran intensified disruptions to commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with at least five maritime incidents reported within 48 hours. Brent crude rose 0.8% to USD 106.58/barrel amid renewed Gulf supply concerns.

US central bank viewed inflation as the biggest risk to their outlook, with most participants assessed that another increase in the fed funds target range would likely be appropriate by year end. This led to a higher Treasury yields ,strengthening the dollar’s interest rate differentials. However, September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29K, well below expectations, adding to expectations that the Fed may have less scope for October Fed rate hike, along with dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, further limited the dollar’s upside.

Steel:

• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Moreover, HRC prices are up by 1.4% on a monthly basis due to raw material price surge and stronger demand from auto sector.

Base metals:

• LME 3M copper are up by 1.6% on a weekly basis as support from weaker job data, reduced rate hike expectations, several supply disruptions in Chile (Escondida, Radomiro Tomic, and Centinela), backwardation structure was capped by progress in Grasberg repairs and geopolitical tensions.
• Aluminum prices are down 3.1% due to gradual recovery from GCC and stronger dollar despite tensions in the middle east.

Precious metals:

• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake are suppressing any upside momentum.
• Stronger US Dollar and geopolitical tensions are weighing on precious metal prices.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update

• For October, Saudi Aramco CP was set at USD 680/ton for propane and USD 730/ton for butane, representing increases of USD 55/ton and USD 70/ton, respectively, from September levels. The propane-butane spread widened further to USD 50/ton, compared with USD 35/ton in September and USD 20/ton in August, indicating continued relative strength in butane pricing and tighter butane availability compared with propane. The larger month-on-month increase in butane also points to a stronger rise in butane market tightness entering October.
• Sonatrach increased its October propane OSP by USD 110/ton, from USD 560/ton in September to USD 670/ton. Meanwhile, the butane OSP increased by USD 140/ton, from USD 610/ton to USD 750/ton.

• US LPG prices strengthened across the board between 1 October and 8 October 2026, with propane rising by 8.6% to USD 466/ton from USD 429/ton. Butane increased by 7.6% to USD 738/ton from USD 686/ton, while the 50:50 LPG blend climbed by 8.0% to USD 601.77/ton from USD 557.28/ton. Notably, the Mont Belvieu 50:50 LPG blend crossed the USD 600/ton threshold for the first time since 2022, underscoring the strength of the current price rally. The simultaneous increase in propane and butane indicates broad-based upward pressure across the US LPG market rather than a rally driven by a single component.