Crude Oil Market Update

• The US President Trump is unhappy with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the ongoing war, dampening hopes for a resolution. Iran's proposal would set aside discussion of its nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved.
• Oil prices have risen as the conflict continues, with only seven ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz on 27th Apr'26, compared to 125-140 daily transits before the war.
• The US imposed sanctions on a major Chinese “teapot” refinery and dozens of vessels for purchasing Iranian oil, aiming to tighten pressure on Iran ahead of renewed nuclear talks.
• While the move may disrupt some trade flows, China buying over 80% of Iran’s exported oil and its independent refiners are expected to remain relatively resilient to the impact of sanctions.
• Market grapevine indicates that Gulf oil production, impacted by the Iran conflict, will mostly recover within a few months after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Around 14.5 MBpd of Gulf crude output was offline in Apr'26, largely due to precautionary shutdowns and stock management.
• A prolonged closure raises the risk of lasting damage to supply, while an average of external agency forecasts suggests 70% recovery within three months and 88% within six months.
• The US oil executives expect domestic production to rise due to the ongoing war in Iran, which is upending global supplies and pushing crude and fuel prices higher, according to a Dallas Fed survey. The survey, conducted from 15th Apr'26 to 20th Apr'26, collected data from 120 oil and gas firms, including 78 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield services firms.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on 23rd Apr'26, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway a day after US President Trump announced he was indefinitely calling ​off attacks.
• The status of a two week old ceasefire remained unclear, with Iranian officials not agreeing to any extension and criticising Trump's decision to maintain the US Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea, which Iran considers an act of war.
• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted on 21st Apr'26, with only three ships passing in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data.
• The US blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, prompting it to maintain its own restrictions on the strait, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
• More than a dozen tankers passed through the strait after Iran briefly declared it open on 17th Apr'26, before Tehran announced it was closed on Saturday, firing shots at vessels.
• Russia’s oil output likely fell by 0.30–0.40 MBpd in Apr'26 due to Ukrainian attacks on key energy infrastructure and disruptions to export routes, despite a prior rise in Mar'26 production.
• Ongoing strikes and broader geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war, are expected to further strain Russia’s supply outlook and global oil markets.
• Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments after a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, hindering its ability to meet certain customer commitments.
• State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. notified customers that it was invoking a contract clause allowing it to withhold scheduled deliveries. The decision is not expected to result in a complete halt in supply.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted on 21st Apr'26, with only three ships passing in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data.
• The US blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, prompting it to maintain its own restrictions on the strait, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
• More than a dozen tankers passed through the strait after Iran briefly declared it open on 17th Apr'26, before Tehran announced it was closed on Saturday, firing shots at vessels.
• Russia’s oil output likely fell by 0.30–0.40 MBpd in Apr'26 due to Ukrainian attacks on key energy infrastructure and disruptions to export routes, despite a prior rise in Mar'26 production.
• Ongoing strikes and broader geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war, are expected to further strain Russia’s supply outlook and global oil markets.
• Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments after a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, hindering its ability to meet certain customer commitments.
• State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. notified customers that it was invoking a contract clause allowing it to withhold scheduled deliveries. The decision is not expected to result in a complete halt in supply.
• On 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• TOn 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.
• Tehran has proposed allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, as long as a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict.
• According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri expressed concern to Tehran's ambassador in New Delhi, Mohammad Fathali, and urged him to convey India's views to Iranian authorities, resuming the process of facilitating India-bound ships as soon as possible.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• TOn 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.
• Tehran has proposed allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, as long as a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict.
• According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri expressed concern to Tehran's ambassador in New Delhi, Mohammad Fathali, and urged him to convey India's views to Iranian authorities, resuming the process of facilitating India-bound ships as soon as possible.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Tehran has proposed allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, as long as a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict.
• Optimism grew that the war in the Middle East may be near an end, with key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the administration of President Trump talking up hopes for a deal that would open the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
• On 14th Apr'26, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that world oil supply will shrink this year due to the war in the Middle East, reversing earlier forecasts for growth.
• Oil prices have surged to near record highs, prompting governments to introduce fuel-saving measures. The agency predicts a 1.5 MBpd supply drop, contrasting with previous predictions of supply growth, and a 0.08 MBpd drop in demand growth this year, from a 0.64 MBpd rise in Mar'26.
• The International Energy Agency said the conflict has led to the largest oil supply disruption in history, with 10.1 million barrels per day lost in Mar'26.
• China's Mar'26 crude oil imports fell 2.8% from a year earlier due to a high base, while the Iran war curbed refinery runs with Middle East supply disruptions expected to weigh on Apr'26 imports. Imports in Mar'26 were 11.77 MBpd, the General Administration of Customs said.
• Chinese refineries' capacity utilization rate was 68.79% in Mar'26, down 0.9% YoY, and down 4.47% from Feb'26.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US military announced a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas starting 13th Apr'26 (today), following the failure of weekend talks to end the war with Iran.
• Saudi Arabia has restored full oil pumping capacity through the East-West pipeline to about 7 MBpd, days after providing an assessment of damage on its energy sector from attacks during the Iran conflict.
• Market grapevine indicates that China has allowed state refiners to draw on commercial oil reserves. Companies including China Petrochemical Corp. and China National Petroleum Corp. will be permitted to use inventories held at storage and processing facilities.
• Multiple estimates suggest that there can be a potential drawdowns of around 1 MBpd between Apr’26 and Jun’26. China imports around 11 MBpd and posses a SPR of around 1,000 mln bbl.
• Chinese independent refiners, also known as teapots, have bought Iranian oil at premiums to Brent for the first time in years due to falling benchmark prices and expectations of increased Indian purchases after Washington's temporary waiver of sanctions.
• Japan plans to release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves from May'26, as the country aims to ensure stable domestic supply and diversify its sources amid disruptions in the Middle East.
• The US and Iran have agreed on a two-week ceasefire, but the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, causing global energy supply disruptions.
• Japan is dependent on the Middle East for about 95% of its oil, and the government is seeking substitute supplies from various countries, including the US, Malaysia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Nigeria, and Angola, while also using Middle Eastern routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Important Update

• The first day of the ceasefire showed limited progress, particularly in terms of tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuzon, on day 1 (08th Apr'26), with shipping intelligence firms reporting that 4 vessels crossed, all dry cargo carriers (including the Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged Daytona Beach), and no oil tankers transiting the strait. Vessel traffic remained largely unchanged, which is not surprising given ongoing safety concerns. Shipowners are hesitant to resume operations due to continued threatening statements from the IRGC, along with the release of navigational advisories and maps warning about potential sea mines in the channel.
• Even if some of these threats are uncertain, the process of clearing mines and ensuring safe passage is time-consuming, even under stable conditions. As a result, the only viable short-term solution appears to be a potential arrangement where the US informally allows Iran to control passage, possibly through a toll-based system. Even under such a scenario, it is expected that Hormuz flows will remain significantly reduced for at least the next four weeks, with a risk of further prolonged disruption. Additionally, logistical challenges such as repositioning vessels, clearing storage, and restarting upstream and refining operations will take some time.
• Shipowners are also likely to remain cautious due to the risk of renewed conflict, especially depending on developments over the next couple of weeks. There are also concerns about the implications of making payments to sanctioned entities, which could increase pressure to relax sanctions on Iran, at least temporarily for maritime transit.
• At the same time, there are unconfirmed reports of fires near Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq processing facility, along with confirmed attacks on the East–West pipeline, which was operating at emergency capacity of up to 7 MBpd before the attack. This raises concerns about the reliability of alternative export routes, particularly the Red Sea route via Yanbu, which is currently a key fallback option.
• Meanwhile, physical crude markets continue to strengthen, and paper markets are rebounding toward pre-ceasefire levels. There are also early signs of resource nationalism emerging in Europe, with companies like Galp reportedly considering limiting diesel exports to safeguard domestic supply are expected to support Diesel prices in near term.

Ten Negotiation terms set by Iran for ceasefire:

• US commitment to non-aggression — A guarantee of no further acts of aggression or attacks against Iran.
• Continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz — Iran retains oversight and the ability to regulate passage (including potential fees or coordination with its armed forces).
• Acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment rights — Formal recognition of Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
• Lifting of all primary US sanctions against Iran.
• Lifting of all secondary sanctions (affecting third countries dealing with Iran).
• Termination of all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran.
• Termination of all IAEA Board of Governors resolutions against Iran.
• Payment of compensation/damages to Iran for war losses and reconstruction.
• Withdrawal of US combat forces from the region (all bases and points of deployment).
• Cessation of the war on all fronts, including an end to attacks on Iran and its allies (such as in Lebanon against Hezbollah/"Islamic resistance").

Crude Oil Market Update

• The government is considering releasing an additional 20 days’ worth of oil reserves as early as May'26 due to continued uncertainty around safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, even after the US–Iran ceasefire. Initial releases began in mid-Mar'26, totaling around 50 days’ worth of oil, with ongoing distribution from national reserves through Apr'26.
• Alongside stock releases, efforts are underway to secure alternative crude supplies from the US and via routes bypassing Hormuz. However, concerns remain, prompting discussions on possible fuel demand control measures.
• Iraq's state-run Basra Oil Company head, said that if the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Iraq could restore crude oil exports to around 3.4 MBpd within a week. However, Iraq has not received formal documents from Iran regarding permission for Iraqi tankers to pass through the Strait.
• Crude oil exports from Russia's Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk were suspended due to a drone attack and fire. The terminal typically loads 0.7 MBpd, adding strain to Russian infrastructure.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.