Commodity Research

Base Metals

TransGraph specializes in providing Base Metals Price research and market analysis. With its unique approach of mapping the market thought applied in combination of extensive physical and financial markets knowledge and experience, TransGraph delivers services in a wide range of activities including Research, Market Intelligence, Feasibility studies, Pricing advisory, Price Risk Management and trade advisory.

We track all major forward /futures markets, Spot Markets, options and over-the counter products for client hedging / risk management requirements. Clients can benefit from a knowledgeable team comfortable with commodities in both physical and derivative markets.

TransGraph customer base encompasses producers, traders, consumers, manufacturers, smelters and value add processers resulting in a comprehensive knowledge and understanding of all areas of the Base Metals markets. TransGraph has proven forecasting accuracy across the base metals complex. The audit is done in a systematic and fool proof fashion regularly and shared publicly. Our clients use our price forecast in making their purchase decisions and save 3-4% on their procurement cost.

We track all base metals being traded on bench mark market LME. TransGraph delivers regular market research reports on Copper, Aluminum, and Zinc & Lead.


Copper (Cu): Copper is the most actively watched commodity for its price behavior as its direction gives broad clues to the economic activity globally. Copper is being actively traded on LME Platform which also act as pricing bench mark globally. Copper has been a leading indicator for other base metals.

Daily Copper Price Outlook & Strategy
Monthly Copper Special Report

Aluminum (Al): Aluminium is the second most abundant metallic element in the earth’s crust after silicon and is the world’s second most used metal. Aluminum being traded on LME is highly co-related with other Copper Prices.

Daily Aluminum Price Outlook & Strategy
Monthly Aluminum Special Report

Lead (Pb): Industrial metal used in battery manufacturing is actively traded on LME and SHFE markets. Lead and Zinc find common applications and are highly co-related.

Daily Lead Price Outlook & Strategy
Monthly Lead Special Report

Zinc (Zn): Zinc is commonly mined as a co-product with standard lead and is mainly used in galvanizing, which accounts for almost half its modern-day demand. It is the third largest traded contract on LME.

Daily Zinc Price Outlook & Strategy
Monthly Zinc Special Report

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“ I am writing to extend my thanks for the research and price forecasting services provided to us on a daily basis by Transgraph. The reports and information whether they are emailed to us daily or sourced via your website portal, are a consistent and reliable source of quality information. Our industry is one where information and its dissemination can help in differentiating between suppliers."

- Scott Yarwood, Sr. Regional Sales Manager, ADM Trading (UK) Ltd.

“ This is to state our appreciation for Transgraph for continuously delivering on its mandate to provide updated and insightful consulting services in the area of commodities and ingredients. I would also like to thank your team that is always in touch with buyers and feeds in relevant information that has been many times useful in decision making. In nutshell, the engagement with Transgraph has been enriching."

- V. Sridhar, Sector Manager, Commodities & Ingredients, Cadbury India Ltd.

“ By helping simulate the risk scenarios beforehand, TransRisk has added immense value to our trading decision making process at the operating level. The scenarios are comprehensive because one is able to view the basis and rollover risks associated with the hedged positions too. TransRisk also serves as good Dashboard for the top management, as it gives exposures, P&L, associated risk, limits all at one place.”

- S Sivakumar, CEO, Agri Business, ITC Limited

“ At risk framework and imputed risk model of TransRisk are definitely forward looking and will enable us to move away from ‘post mortem’ approach. We can take a business decision of pricing our contracts or purchasing in advance after factoring in a quantifiable and acceptable risk instead of trying to find reasons for the breach of limits."
"A flexible and scalable business intelligence that gives exposures, P&L, associated risk, limits all at one place and this decision support system can be integrated with our existing ERP and will avoid duplication of data entry.”

- Jude Magima, ED – Sourcing and Supply Chain, Dabur India Limited

“ Transgraph has showcased that ‘Risk Management’ is an excellent tool which will help any sourcing organization to deliver in any and even during challenging business scenario. They have succeeded in creating a deeper, specific and relevant input to the automotive sector. Highly recommended, the course was extremely detailed but the faculty made it so easy to understand - Top marks.”

- S.R. Rajan, Vice President-Commercial, TVS Srichakra Limited.


Features Daily Price Outlook & Strategy Weekly Price Outlook & Strategy Weekly Elliott wave analyser Monthly Long term outlook
Coverage Global Markets CU, AL, PB, ZN Global Markets CU, AL, PB, ZN LME CU, AL, PB, ZN Global Markets CU, AL, PB, ZN
Fundamental summary Critical fundamental Factors; Fundamental outlook Index Critical fundamental Factors; Fundamental outlook Index Not Applicable (NA) Supply & Demand Forecasts; Inventory; Sentiment index; Currency impact; Recent developments
Technical summary Technical analysis summary Technical analysis summary LME Elliott wave analyser summary Technical outlook 
Price Direction LME: Price Direction Forecast
MCX: Price Direction Forecast
LME: Price Direction Forecast Elliott wave degrees: Cycle, Primary, Intermediate, Minor waves
Price direction: 2, 4 and 6 Weeks
LME: Price Direction Forecast
Price range forecast Price Range: 5 day & 10 day forecast Price Range: 2 week, 1 & 2 months forecast Price Range: 2 week Price Range: 2 months forecast
Strategy review Review of previous strategy Review of previous strategy NA Not Applicable (NA)
Latest Strategy LME & MCX : Trading strategy LME & MCX : Generic procurement strategy LME: Directional strategy NA
Performance Audit LME & MCX Strike Rate; NP/GP ratio LME & MCX Strike Rate; % savings NA NA
Fundamental analysis Yester session market review Comprehensive fundamental analysis
Global Economy analysis
NA Metal production; Mine production; Capacity; Explorations; Mine Producers;  Producers; S&D gaps; Consumption trends; Construction sector; Automobile sector; Stocks trends; Spreads; Forward Curves; TC/RC; Seasonality; China Arbitrage; Economic sentiments; New projects; Physical premiums; Chinese exports...
Technical outlook Detailed technical analysis and outlook on LME for short term Detailed technical analysis and outlook on LME & MCX for medium term LME Elliott wave proffered count : Long term & Short term
LME Elliott wave alternative count : Long term & Short term
Elliott waves
Calendar Key Economic & Fundamental Data Key Economic & Fundamental Data NA NA
Mini Charts Various must track data trends Various must track data trends NA NA
Facts & Figures Most important market data Most important market data NA NA
Other Not Applicable (NA) CFTC COT analysis NA CFTC COT analysis


Period Strike Rate % NP/GP % Procurement Savings %
2012 YTD 2007-12 YTD 2012 YTD 2007-12 YTD 2012 YTD 2007-12 YTD
Daily Copper Price Outlook & Strategy 83% 60% 95% 57% NA
Weekly Copper Price Outlook & Strategy 78% NA NA 0.4% 0.95%
Daily Aluminum Price Outlook & Strategy 25% 57% 44% 43% NA
Weekly Aluminum Price Outlook & Strategy 74% NA NA 0.03% 0.88%
Daily Lead Price Outlook & Strategy 100% 60% 100% 66% NA
Weekly Lead Price Outlook & Strategy NA NA 1.33% 1.53%
Daily Zinc Price Outlook & Strategy 100% 60% 100% 61% NA
Weekly Zinc Price Outlook & Strategy NA NA 0.35% 0.8%
YTD: Year Till Date
Strike Rate %: Daily: Percentage of number of strategies made profit. Weekly: Percentage of number of months bettered the market average
NP/GP %: {(Gross Profit - Gross Loss) / (Gross Profit)}X100
Procurement Savings %: {(Market average - TransGraph purchase price) / (Market average)}X100

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