Crude Oil Market Update

• Two Chinese supertankers carrying 4 mln bbl of Middle East crude oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on 20th May'26 (today) after waiting in the Gulf for over two months. The ships are among a handful of supertankers carrying Iraqi crude exiting the Gulf this month via a transit route that Iran has ordered ships to use. The vessels are expected to reach their destinations in China to discharge their cargo by 05th Jun'26.
• According to American Petroleum Institute inventory data release the US crude oil inventories fell for a fifth straight week, with a 9.1 mln bbl drop in the week ended 15th May'26. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.8 mln bbl, while distillate inventories dropped by 1 mln bbl, both compared to a week earlier.
• A Ukrainian drone attack on a Moscow oil refinery over the weekend has temporarily halted operations, with the facility expected to take several days to restart. The strike caused little damage to the plant, but operations were stopped as a precaution.
• The refinery, owned by Gazpromneft, processes 11.6 million metric tons of crude oil annually and produces 2.9 million tons of gasoline, 3.2 million tons of diesel, and 1.3 million tons of bitumen.
• The US Treasury Secretary announced a 30 days extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid 'energy-vulnerable' countries affected by the Iran war. The waiver will allow access to Russian oil and petroleum products stranded on tankers without violating severe US sanctions on Russian oil majors.
• China's Apr'26 crude oil throughput fell 5.8% from a year earlier to 13.3 MBpd, the lowest since Aug'22, due to the Iran war curbing refinery runs. China's Apr'26 oil imports dropped 20% YoY to 9.36 MBpd, the lowest level in almost four years, a steeper decline than the drop in oil throughput.
• The US President Trump and Iran's foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iraq's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 mln bbl in Apr'26, down from 93 mln bbl before the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait has curtailed exports from multiple countries, causing prices to rise.
• Iraq is currently producing 1.4 MBpd and plans to boost production and export capacity to 5 MBpd through dialogue with OPEC, while also engaging with US companies to develop oil and gas projects.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update - 18 May 2026

• VLGC freight on the Houston to Chiba route hit an all-time high of USD 307.50/ton on 11 May, a 126% rise since January, reflecting structurally rerouted Atlantic-to-Asia trade.
• The China tariff cut on US propane to 11%, effective 14 May just ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, opens a tentative window for trade flow normalization.
• Saudi Aramco's May contract prices held firm at USD 750/ton for propane, and CEO Amin Nasser warned on the company's earnings call that even a Hormuz reopening tomorrow would take months to rebalance markets, possibly stretching into 2027.
• India finds itself at the sharpest end of the Hormuz disruption, with import volumes down roughly 35% from pre-conflict levels and the oil minister publicly confirming the country holds only 45 days of LPG reserves as of 12 May.
• The three state oil marketing companies, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, have pivoted aggressively toward US cargoes under a 2.2 million ton/year term agreement, with multiple VLGC fixtures confirmed for late May and June loading from the US Gulf.
• On the domestic production side, refinery LPG output has been pushed up around 50% to 54,000 t/day, with nearly all locally produced propane and butane redirected into LPG blending, effectively halting alkylate exports.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US Treasury Secretary announced a 30 days extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid 'energy-vulnerable' countries affected by the Iran war. The waiver will allow access to Russian oil and petroleum products stranded on tankers without violating severe US sanctions on Russian oil majors.
• China's Apr'26 crude oil throughput fell 5.8% from a year earlier to 13.3 MBpd, the lowest since Aug'22, due to the Iran war curbing refinery runs. China's Apr'26 oil imports dropped 20% YoY to 9.36 MBpd, the lowest level in almost four years, a steeper decline than the drop in oil throughput.
• The US President Trump and Iran's foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iraq's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 mln bbl in Apr'26, down from 93 mln bbl before the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait has curtailed exports from multiple countries, causing prices to rise.
• Iraq is currently producing 1.4 MBpd and plans to boost production and export capacity to 5 MBpd through dialogue with OPEC, while also engaging with US companies to develop oil and gas projects.
• The US energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row for the first time since Sep'25, with the oil and gas rig count rising to 551, its highest since late Mar'26. Despite the increase, the total count is still down 25 rigs, or 4% below this time last year.
• The rise in oil and gas rigs comes as US West Texas Intermediate crude spot prices are expected to rise in 2026 due to the Iran war, leading to an increase in crude output from 13.6 mln bbl per day in 2025 to 13.7 MBpd in 2026.

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release
Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update - 18 May 2026

• VLGC freight on the Houston to Chiba route hit an all-time high of USD 307.50/ton on 11 May, a 126% rise since January, reflecting structurally rerouted Atlantic-to-Asia trade.
• The China tariff cut on US propane to 11%, effective 14 May just ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, opens a tentative window for trade flow normalization.
• Saudi Aramco's May contract prices held firm at USD 750/ton for propane, and CEO Amin Nasser warned on the company's earnings call that even a Hormuz reopening tomorrow would take months to rebalance markets, possibly stretching into 2027.
• India finds itself at the sharpest end of the Hormuz disruption, with import volumes down roughly 35% from pre-conflict levels and the oil minister publicly confirming the country holds only 45 days of LPG reserves as of 12 May.
• The three state oil marketing companies, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, have pivoted aggressively toward US cargoes under a 2.2 million ton/year term agreement, with multiple VLGC fixtures confirmed for late May and June loading from the US Gulf.
• On the domestic production side, refinery LPG output has been pushed up around 50% to 54,000 t/day, with nearly all locally produced propane and butane redirected into LPG blending, effectively halting alkylate exports.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US President Trump and Iran's foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iraq's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 mln bbl in Apr'26, down from 93 mln bbl before the Iran war, as the closure of the Strait has curtailed exports from multiple countries, causing prices to rise.
• Iraq is currently producing 1.4 MBpd and plans to boost production and export capacity to 5 MBpd through dialogue with OPEC, while also engaging with US companies to develop oil and gas projects.
• The US energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row for the first time since Sep'25, with the oil and gas rig count rising to 551, its highest since late Mar'26. Despite the increase, the total count is still down 25 rigs, or 4% below this time last year.
• The rise in oil and gas rigs comes as US West Texas Intermediate crude spot prices are expected to rise in 2026 due to the Iran war, leading to an increase in crude output from 13.6 mln bbl per day in 2025 to 13.7 MBpd in 2026.
• Iran's state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, though attacks on one ship and the seizure of another kept stoking concerns over the flow of energy supplies during the Iran war.
• Market grapevine indicates that Iran has begun allowing some Chinese vessels to transit through the Strait of Hormuz following an understanding over Iranian management protocols for the waterway.
• The move came as US President Trump and Chinese leader Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. A Chinese supertanker carrying 2 mln bbl of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on 13th May'26, after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months due to the US-Iran war. 

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

LPG Market Update - 18 May 2026

• VLGC freight on the Houston to Chiba route hit an all-time high of USD 307.50/ton on 11 May, a 126% rise since January, reflecting structurally rerouted Atlantic-to-Asia trade.
• The China tariff cut on US propane to 11%, effective 14 May just ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, opens a tentative window for trade flow normalization.
• Saudi Aramco's May contract prices held firm at USD 750/ton for propane, and CEO Amin Nasser warned on the company's earnings call that even a Hormuz reopening tomorrow would take months to rebalance markets, possibly stretching into 2027.
• India finds itself at the sharpest end of the Hormuz disruption, with import volumes down roughly 35% from pre-conflict levels and the oil minister publicly confirming the country holds only 45 days of LPG reserves as of 12 May.
• The three state oil marketing companies, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL, have pivoted aggressively toward US cargoes under a 2.2 million ton/year term agreement, with multiple VLGC fixtures confirmed for late May and June loading from the US Gulf.
• On the domestic production side, refinery LPG output has been pushed up around 50% to 54,000 t/day, with nearly all locally produced propane and butane redirected into LPG blending, effectively halting alkylate exports.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran's state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, though attacks on one ship and the seizure of another kept stoking concerns over the flow of energy supplies during the Iran war.
• Market grapevine indicates that Iran has begun allowing some Chinese vessels to transit through the Strait of Hormuz following an understanding over Iranian management protocols for the waterway.
• The move came as US President Trump and Chinese leader Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. A Chinese supertanker carrying 2 mln bbl of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on 13th May'26, after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months due to the US-Iran war.
• India raised petrol and diesel prices by 3 rupees per litre for the first time in four years to recover losses from higher global crude oil prices. The closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz led to a spike in global oil prices.
• Market grapevine indicates that the price hike will have a muted impact of about 15 basis points on consumer price inflation, while the indirect impact will be larger.
• A Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refining group Eneos successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the second Japan-linked ship to do so since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted oil supplies. The tanker is carrying 1.2 mln bbl of Kuwait crude and 0.70 mln bbl of Emirati Das Blend oil, expected to arrive in Japan on 03rd Jun'26. 

War Impact on Crude Oil & Gasoil/Diesel Prices

War Impact on Gasoline, ATF & Natural Gas Prices

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US EIA revised its forecasts to show a much larger and longer disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran war than previously projected, highlighting the uncertainty that has affected broader energy markets since the conflict began three months ago.
• Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to remove millions of barrels of global oil supply daily, with the EIA now assuming the Strait will remain closed through the end of May'26.
• The agency estimates that 10.5 MBpd of oil output was shut in across the Middle East in Apr'26, rising to a peak of 10.8 MBpd this month as Middle Eastern storage tanks reach maximum capacity, leading to bigger draws from global oil stockpiles and elevated oil prices.
• Iraq and Pakistan have struck deals with Iran to transport oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating Iran's ability to control energy flows. Iraq, which relies heavily on oil exports, secured safe passage for two very large crude carriers, while Pakistan, which has sought to mediate in the conflict, received two Qatari LNG tankers.
• A Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refining group Eneos successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the second Japan-linked ship to do so since the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted oil supplies. The tanker is carrying 1.2 mln bbl of Kuwait crude and 0.70 mln bbl of Emirati Das Blend oil, expected to arrive in Japan on 03rd Jun'26. 

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US EIA revised its forecasts to show a much larger and longer disruption to global oil supplies from the Iran war than previously projected, highlighting the uncertainty that has affected broader energy markets since the conflict began three months ago.
• Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to remove millions of barrels of global oil supply daily, with the EIA now assuming the Strait will remain closed through the end of May'26.
• The agency estimates that 10.5 MBpd of oil output was shut in across the Middle East in Apr'26, rising to a peak of 10.8 MBpd this month as Middle Eastern storage tanks reach maximum capacity, leading to bigger draws from global oil stockpiles and elevated oil prices.
• Iraq and Pakistan have struck deals with Iran to transport oil and liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating Iran's ability to control energy flows. Iraq, which relies heavily on oil exports, secured safe passage for two very large crude carriers, while Pakistan, which has sought to mediate in the conflict, received two Qatari LNG tankers.
• Hopes for a peace deal on Iran faded on 12th May'26 after Donald Trump said ​a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" as Tehran rejected a US proposal to end the conflict and stuck to a list of ‌demands the US president described as "garbage".
• Iran has called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where US ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also emphasized its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, demanded compensation for war damage, and an end to the US naval blockade, among other conditions.
• Market grapevine indicates OPEC oil output fell to the lowest in more than two decades in Apr'26 due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced export cuts. Output dropped by 0.83 MBpd to 20.04 MBpd, with Kuwait experiencing the group's biggest production decline. 
• China’s crude oil imports fell 20% YoY to 7.7 MBpd in Apr'26 (with seaborne imports at 8.03 MBpd, the lowest since Jul'22), while refined product exports dropped to 0.75 MBpd and natural gas imports declined to 1.1 MBpd amid Middle East supply disruptions.
• Despite lower imports, crude inventories increased by 0.57 MBpd (17 mln bbl build) in Apr'26, while year-to-date imports remained slightly higher at 9.1 MBpd (increased by 1.3% YoY).

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 7%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid and Grasberg mine.
• Aluminum rose by 0.2% linked to Gulf region supply disruptions. However, demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Hopes for a peace deal on Iran faded on 12th May'26 after Donald Trump said ​a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" as Tehran rejected a US proposal to end the conflict and stuck to a list of ‌demands the US president described as "garbage".
• Iran has called for an end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where US ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also emphasized its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, demanded compensation for war damage, and an end to the US naval blockade, among other conditions.
• Market grapevine indicates OPEC oil output fell to the lowest in more than two decades in Apr'26 due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced export cuts. Output dropped by 0.83 MBpd to 20.04 MBpd, with Kuwait experiencing the group's biggest production decline. 
• China’s crude oil imports fell 20% YoY to 7.7 MBpd in Apr'26 (with seaborne imports at 8.03 MBpd, the lowest since Jul'22), while refined product exports dropped to 0.75 MBpd and natural gas imports declined to 1.1 MBpd amid Middle East supply disruptions.
• Despite lower imports, crude inventories increased by 0.57 MBpd (17 mln bbl build) in Apr'26, while year-to-date imports remained slightly higher at 9.1 MBpd (increased by 1.3% YoY).
• The US Treasury announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding Iran's efforts to secure weapons and raw materials for its Shahed drones and ballistic missiles.
• The sanctions come as efforts to end the war with Iran have stalled and before President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• Singapore’s total onshore crude oil products stocks fell to 44.83 mln bbl (lowest since July 2025), with middle distillates down by 0.84 mln bbl to 10.08 mln bbl and residual fuel inventories at 19.88 mln bbl, near a one-year low due to disrupted Middle East supply.

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 3.3%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid.
• Aluminum fell by 0.7% despite earlier gains linked to Gulf region supply disruptions — demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Singapore’s total onshore crude oil products stocks fell to 44.83 mln bbl (lowest since July 2025), with middle distillates down by 0.84 mln bbl to 10.08 mln bbl and residual fuel inventories at 19.88 mln bbl, near a one-year low due to disrupted Middle East supply.
• Gasoline stocks also declined to a 19-week low as exports (~4 mln bbl) far exceeded imports (~2.4 mln bbl), while diesel imports surged and jet fuel net exports rose 91% WoW to 0.37 mln bbl.
• Iran is reviewing a US peace proposal that would end the war, but key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. An agreement could lead to discussions on unblocking shipping through the strait, lifting US sanctions on Iran, and setting curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
• Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price (OSP) of its Jun'26 Arab Light crude oil to Asia by 4 USD per bbl to 15.50 USD above the Oman/Dubai average.
• The company also lowered the Arab Light OSP for Northwest Europe by 2 USD per bbl and kept the price for North American customers unchanged.

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations advance, but long-term deal remains uncertain, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

The United States and Iran are reportedly approaching a limited short-term ceasefire agreement aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East conflict, although prospects for a comprehensive settlement remain constrained by persistent disagreements surrounding Iran’s nuclear program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Current negotiations, are focused on establishing an interim framework that would formalize a cessation of hostilities, ensure the reopening and stabilization of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 30-day window for broader diplomatic negotiations. Nevertheless, substantial gaps between Washington and Tehran continue to limit visibility on a durable long-term resolution.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week up by 3.3%, primarily due to supply risks linked to sulphuric acid.
• Aluminum fell by 0.7% despite earlier gains linked to Gulf region supply disruptions — demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face upward pressure, due to improving market sentiment in peace talks.
• However, any esclation and halt in a resolution will pressure on Precious Metals.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran is reviewing a US peace proposal that would end the war, but key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. An agreement could lead to discussions on unblocking shipping through the strait, lifting US sanctions on Iran, and setting curbs on Iran's nuclear program.
• Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price (OSP) of its Jun'26 Arab Light crude oil to Asia by 4 USD per bbl to 15.50 USD above the Oman/Dubai average.
• The company also lowered the Arab Light OSP for Northwest Europe by 2 USD per bbl and kept the price for North American customers unchanged.
• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a UAE oil port ablaze and provoking a response from the US military, which destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted missiles and drones. 
• The UAE said its air defenses were engaging missile and drone threats on 05th May'26 evening, as firefighters battled a blaze at a major oil industry zone following a drone attack originating from Iran.
• The Gulf Arab state's foreign ministry said the attacks posed a direct threat to the country's security and reserved the right to respond.
• Iranian state media cited a senior military official saying Iran had no plan to target the UAE, while the UAE's defence ministry said it had intercepted three Iranian missiles over its territorial waters and a fourth crashed into the sea.

Strategic Petroleum Release

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 100 USD/bbl to 125 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: The U.S. is expected to reject Iran’s latest peace proposal, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week down ~2.5%, reflecting deteriorating risk sentiment.
• Aluminum fell ~3% despite earlier gains linked to Gulf region supply disruptions — demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face downward pressure.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.