Copper closed at an all-time high of USD 13,920/Ton, but the real story isn’t the price tag. The real story is why. It’s easy to write off a rally like this as just another wave of market speculation, but the truth is much heavier. We are looking at a market being squeezed by severe, deepening supply-side disruptions and lifted by undeniable cross-metal sentiment.
As deepening supply-side disruptions and strengthening cross-metal sentiment continue to tighten the global market. These are structural, fundamental risks that are rapidly altering the global copper balance as we know it.
Severe sulphuric acid shortage
One of the most critical drivers behind copper’s current rally is the escalating shortage of sulphuric acid, a key raw material required for nearly 17% of global SX-EW copper production. Supply tightness has intensified due to disruptions in West Asia and increasing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, China’s decision to halt sulphuric acid exports has sharply reduced global availability and pushed acid prices significantly higher. The impact is particularly severe for major copper-producing regions such as the DRC and Chile, both heavily dependent on imported acid for SX-EW operations. The DRC sources a substantial portion of its sulphuric acid from Zambia, where extended maintenance shutdowns at major smelters are further restricting supply flows.
Grasberg mine disruption and delayed recovery:
Additional pressure is emerging from prolonged disruptions at the Grasberg Block Cave mine, one of the world’s largest copper mine. Following the major landslide in September 2025, operations were severely impacted, with initial market expectations pointing toward near-normal production by H2 2026 and full recovery by early 2027. However, Freeport has now delayed full restoration timelines to end-2027, while some updates suggest recovery could stretch into 2028. Current estimates indicate only around 65% production recovery in 2026. The delay is reinforcing concerns around long-term supply availability and supporting sustained price strength.
Silver rally spillover
The ongoing silver rally has further boosted sentiment across both precious and industrial metals, adding momentum to copper’s bullish trajectory.
With supply-side disruptions intensifying and market sentiment remaining supportive, copper continues to present a structurally bullish setup. In such an environment, timely market intelligence and strategic commodity insights become increasingly critical for businesses navigating price volatility and procurement risk.
With over 23+ market exercises, integrated with AI-ML, TransGraph can add significant value to your decision-making. Navigating this unprecedented volatility requires robust, data-driven market intelligence. Whether you are hedging against raw material inflation or forecasting your next quarter’s procurement strategy, contact our team at Book a Demo for strategic support during supply chain disruption.