Cumin prices have moved by as much as ₹1,500/quintal in recent months. Are your buying decisions keeping pace with the market?

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What’s Happening Right Now

In the Unjha best quality cumin market, prices remained weak during Apr’26 due to peak fresh crop arrivals and subdued export demand. The average price declined from INR 22,897.5/quintal in Feb’26 to INR 21,337.5/quintal in Apr’26. However, during May’26, prices are finding support as arrivals gradually ease and stock tightening begins supporting market sentiment.

Unjha arrivals in Apr’26 rose +11% YoY to 22,304 MT, keeping the market well-supplied. Cumulative Jan–Apr’26 arrivals at Unjha are up +14.5% YoY. Arrivals in Jodhpur, however, fell 29% YoY in Apr’26 a sign that the supply picture isn’t uniform.

 

 

The Export Story Is the One to Watch

India’s cumin exports for Jan–Mar’26 came in at 37,280 MT down 42% YoY (vs 64,622 MT in the same period last year).

 

 

The biggest movers:
  • During Jan–Mar’26, cumin exports to key destinations declined sharply, with exports to UAE down 50% YoY, China down 82%, and Bangladesh down 32%.
  • China: −82% YoY domestic production surge has made Indian cumin uncompetitive at current price differentials
  • Some bright spots Singapore, Turkey, Peru, and Mexico are showing growth  but they’re not large enough to offset the fall from the big three buyers.

The Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) expects overall cumin exports to decline 15–20% for FY 2025–26 vs the prior year.

 

 

The Risks Procurement Teams Need to Price In
  1. China’s absence may not be permanent. China’s improved domestic crop has temporarily reduced its need for Indian cumin. But any shift a poor crop season, policy change, or price reset could bring large-scale Chinese buying back quickly. When that happens, available export inventory gets absorbed fast.
  2. Arrivals are high today. The next crop is less certain. Late sowing and production concerns for the upcoming season are already being discussed in Unjha. If arrivals decline in coming months, the current price floor could shift sooner than markets expect.
  3. Weather is a wildcard and it’s not just El Niño. Cumin acreage is primarily price-driven, not weather-driven. But dry spells or soil moisture stress during critical growth stages can impact yield and quality regardless of sowing intentions. Weather-driven supply shocks in cumin have historically caused 20–30% price moves within a single season.
  4. Geopolitical freight risk remains live. India is the world’s swing supplier of cumin controlling ~87% of global supply. Disruptions in Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes compress nearby availability and push FOB offers sharply higher, affecting landed cost calculations even when domestic Indian prices look stable.

 

The Bottom Line for Buyers

The current soft patch in cumin prices reflects high arrivals and weak export demand a window that may not last through the season.

The market isn’t signaling a clear price direction it’s signaling wide uncertainty, and buyers might risk paying more if they get the timing wrong 

How are you managing cumin procurement risk this season? Subscribe to TransGraph services , we help food manufacturers and spice importer’s structure procurement strategies backed by mandi-level intelligence, export flow data, and seasonal outlooks.