Crude Oil Market Update

• API report released on 06th Apr'26 estimated that the US weekly crude stocks fell by 8.1 mln bbl and Cushing stocks fell by 1.0 mln bbl. At the crude products front, gasoline stocks were decreased by 6.1 mln bbl and distillates stocks fell by 4.6 mln bbl.
• The EIA’s weekly crude report is set to be released later in the session, with market participants closely monitoring changes in crude and distillate inventories, as well as overall demand for crude products and distillates.
• Saudi Arabia reduced the official selling price (OSP) of its Jun'26 Arab Light crude oil to Asia by 4 USD per bbl to 15.50 USD above the Oman/Dubai average.
• The company also lowered the Arab Light OSP for Northwest Europe by 2 USD per bbl and kept the price for North American customers unchanged.
• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a UAE oil port ablaze and provoking a response from the US military, which destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted missiles and drones. 
• The UAE said its air defenses were engaging missile and drone threats on 05th May'26 evening, as firefighters battled a blaze at a major oil industry zone following a drone attack originating from Iran.
• The Gulf Arab state's foreign ministry said the attacks posed a direct threat to the country's security and reserved the right to respond.
• Iranian state media cited a senior military official saying Iran had no plan to target the UAE, while the UAE's defence ministry said it had intercepted three Iranian missiles over its territorial waters and a fourth crashed into the sea.

Strategic Petroleum Release

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Ceasefire talks to remain on a progressive note and flows through the Strait of Hormuz improving over the coming weeks; however crude oil production losses will be there due to further non-availability of storage on on-shore in Iraq, Kuwait and other small Middle East nations.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): No major deal being achieved from ceasefire talks and post completion of ceasefire talks, tensions continuing to remain in the Middle East and flows through the Strait of Hormuz continuing to remain restrained. Crude Oil Production Facilities & Refining Centers in the Middle East region getting affected and trade disruptions in Strait of Hormuz will be there for medium to long term (4 to 7 months).

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

Metals & Energy Market Update – Geopolitical Context (Iran Conflict)

Geopolitical backdrop: The U.S. is expected to reject Iran’s latest peace proposal, extending uncertainty in the region and sustaining volatility across commodities.

Steel:

• Domestic steel prices have moderated from recent highs.
• Steel supply chains remain largely insulated from the Middle East conflict.
• Hot-rolled coil prices declined by ~INR 1,800/ton in April ’26, ending at ~INR 57,850/ton (BigMint).
• Initial war-driven risk premium has been partially unwound.

Base metals:

• Copper ended last week down ~2.5%, reflecting deteriorating risk sentiment.
• Aluminum fell ~3% despite earlier gains linked to Gulf region supply disruptions — demand softness now driving price action.
• IMF downgraded 2026 global growth to 3.1% (from 3.3% earlier and 3.4% in 2025), highlighting war-related downside risks.

Precious metals:

• Volatility has eased, but prices face downward pressure.
• Stronger U.S. yields and weak industrial offtake—especially auto—are suppressing any upside momentum.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a UAE oil port ablaze and provoking a response from the US military, which destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted missiles and drones. 
• The UAE said its air defenses were engaging missile and drone threats on 05th May'26 evening, as firefighters battled a blaze at a major oil industry zone following a drone attack originating from Iran.
• The Gulf Arab state's foreign ministry said the attacks posed a direct threat to the country's security and reserved the right to respond.
• Iranian state media cited a senior military official saying Iran had no plan to target the UAE, while the UAE's defence ministry said it had intercepted three Iranian missiles over its territorial waters and a fourth crashed into the sea.
• The US President Trump announced the US would assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but the lack of a US-Iran peace deal kept the market supported.
• The OPEC+ group of crude oil exporters agreed to increase output for a third straight month in Jun'26 by 0.19 MBpd, but the decision is largely meaningless due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The remaining members of OPEC+ are signalling that they will continue without UAE, showing that the group remains relevant and most likely believes it will continue to act as a balancing force between supply and demand.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US President Trump announced the US would assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but the lack of a US-Iran peace deal kept the market supported.
• The OPEC+ group of crude oil exporters agreed to increase output for a third straight month in Jun'26 by 0.19 MBpd, but the decision is largely meaningless due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The remaining members of OPEC+ are signalling that they will continue without UAE, showing that the group remains relevant and most likely believes it will continue to act as a balancing force between supply and demand.
• Asia's imports of crude oil have plunged to the lowest monthly total in at least 10 years due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with South Korea and Japan being among the worst affected countries.
• The US is seeking to loan energy companies up to 92.5 mln bbl of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a global agreement aimed at calming oil markets rattled by the US-Israeli war on Iran.
• The 92.5 mln bbl are part of the 172 mln bbl from the SPR that the US agreed in Mar'26 to loan as part of a pact with more than 30 countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release about 400 mln bbl to help relieve markets. The new offer, if all of it is taken by oil companies, would fulfill the US goal to loan 172 mln bbl, bids are due on 04th May'26.
• The US government imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran's shadow banking sector, and warned banks against doing business with Chinese "teapot" refineries that pay tolls for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US is seeking to loan energy companies up to 92.5 mln bbl of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a global agreement aimed at calming oil markets rattled by the US-Israeli war on Iran.
• The 92.5 mln bbl are part of the 172 mln bbl from the SPR that the US agreed in Mar'26 to loan as part of a pact with more than 30 countries in the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release about 400 mln bbl to help relieve markets. The new offer, if all of it is taken by oil companies, would fulfill the US goal to loan 172 mln bbl, bids are due on 04th May'26.
• Market grapevine indicates that the OPEC+ group is expected to agree on a small increase in oil output quotas on 03rd May'26, despite the loss of most of its exports due to the US-Israeli war with Iran and the exit of a key member, the United Arab Emirates.
• The group will likely agree to an increase of around 0.19 MBpd, similar to last month's hike, minus the UAE's share. This decision would signal that OPEC+ is continuing with a business-as-usual approach.
• The UAE decision to leave OPEC will significantly reduce the 65-year-old producer group's influence over the oil market, potentially triggering a price war among Gulf producers to regain market share after the Iran war.
• The UAE's exit may also weaken the OPEC+ alliance and encourage other members to question the value of limiting output, raising the risk of further defections and years of turbulence in the oil market.
• The US government imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran's shadow banking sector, and warned banks against doing business with Chinese "teapot" refineries that pay tolls for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said the designated individuals and firms had facilitated the movement of tens of bln of dollars tied to sanctions evasion and Iran's sponsorship of terrorism.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The UAE decision to leave OPEC will significantly reduce the 65-year-old producer group's influence over the oil market, potentially triggering a price war among Gulf producers to regain market share after the Iran war.
• The UAE's exit may also weaken the OPEC+ alliance and encourage other members to question the value of limiting output, raising the risk of further defections and years of turbulence in the oil market.
• The US President Trump is unhappy with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the ongoing war, dampening hopes for a resolution. Iran's proposal would set aside discussion of its nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved.
• Oil prices have risen as the conflict continues, with only seven ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz on 27th Apr'26, compared to 125-140 daily transits before the war.
• The US government imposed sanctions on 35 entities and individuals for their roles in Iran's shadow banking sector, and warned banks against doing business with Chinese "teapot" refineries that pay tolls for shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said the designated individuals and firms had facilitated the movement of tens of bln of dollars tied to sanctions evasion and Iran's sponsorship of terrorism.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• The US President Trump is unhappy with Iran's latest proposal to resolve the ongoing war, dampening hopes for a resolution. Iran's proposal would set aside discussion of its nuclear program until the war is ended and disputes over shipping from the Gulf are resolved.
• Oil prices have risen as the conflict continues, with only seven ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz on 27th Apr'26, compared to 125-140 daily transits before the war.
• The US imposed sanctions on a major Chinese “teapot” refinery and dozens of vessels for purchasing Iranian oil, aiming to tighten pressure on Iran ahead of renewed nuclear talks.
• While the move may disrupt some trade flows, China buying over 80% of Iran’s exported oil and its independent refiners are expected to remain relatively resilient to the impact of sanctions.
• Market grapevine indicates that Gulf oil production, impacted by the Iran conflict, will mostly recover within a few months after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. Around 14.5 MBpd of Gulf crude output was offline in Apr'26, largely due to precautionary shutdowns and stock management.
• A prolonged closure raises the risk of lasting damage to supply, while an average of external agency forecasts suggests 70% recovery within three months and 88% within six months.
• The US oil executives expect domestic production to rise due to the ongoing war in Iran, which is upending global supplies and pushing crude and fuel prices higher, according to a Dallas Fed survey. The survey, conducted from 15th Apr'26 to 20th Apr'26, collected data from 120 oil and gas firms, including 78 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield services firms.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz on 23rd Apr'26, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway a day after US President Trump announced he was indefinitely calling ​off attacks.
• The status of a two week old ceasefire remained unclear, with Iranian officials not agreeing to any extension and criticising Trump's decision to maintain the US Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea, which Iran considers an act of war.
• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted on 21st Apr'26, with only three ships passing in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data.
• The US blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, prompting it to maintain its own restrictions on the strait, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
• More than a dozen tankers passed through the strait after Iran briefly declared it open on 17th Apr'26, before Tehran announced it was closed on Saturday, firing shots at vessels.
• Russia’s oil output likely fell by 0.30–0.40 MBpd in Apr'26 due to Ukrainian attacks on key energy infrastructure and disruptions to export routes, despite a prior rise in Mar'26 production.
• Ongoing strikes and broader geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war, are expected to further strain Russia’s supply outlook and global oil markets.
• Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments after a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, hindering its ability to meet certain customer commitments.
• State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. notified customers that it was invoking a contract clause allowing it to withhold scheduled deliveries. The decision is not expected to result in a complete halt in supply.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted on 21st Apr'26, with only three ships passing in the past 24 hours, according to shipping data.
• The US blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, prompting it to maintain its own restrictions on the strait, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supply.
• More than a dozen tankers passed through the strait after Iran briefly declared it open on 17th Apr'26, before Tehran announced it was closed on Saturday, firing shots at vessels.
• Russia’s oil output likely fell by 0.30–0.40 MBpd in Apr'26 due to Ukrainian attacks on key energy infrastructure and disruptions to export routes, despite a prior rise in Mar'26 production.
• Ongoing strikes and broader geopolitical tensions, including the Iran war, are expected to further strain Russia’s supply outlook and global oil markets.
• Kuwait declared force majeure on oil shipments after a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevented some vessels from entering the Persian Gulf, hindering its ability to meet certain customer commitments.
• State-run Kuwait Petroleum Corp. notified customers that it was invoking a contract clause allowing it to withhold scheduled deliveries. The decision is not expected to result in a complete halt in supply.
• On 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• TOn 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.
• Tehran has proposed allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, as long as a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict.
• According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri expressed concern to Tehran's ambassador in New Delhi, Mohammad Fathali, and urged him to convey India's views to Iranian authorities, resuming the process of facilitating India-bound ships as soon as possible.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.

Crude Oil Market Update

• TOn 17th Apr'26, Iran allowed passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz for remaining ceasefire period, along with the US President Trump announced that Iran has agreed to never close the Strait.
• Market grapevine indicates that the Iraq's oil exports are expected to resume from all fields within the next few days. Iraq had halted southern oil exports for over a month due to disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but one tanker has begun loading crude.
• China continued to build the world's largest stockpile of crude oil in Mar'26, with a surplus of 1.74 MBpd, despite the rest of the world drawing on inventories due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's excess crude was 1.41 MBpd for the first quarter, down from the Dec'25 record but up from the 2025 average. China's imports of crude oil were 11.77 MBpd in Mar'26, while domestic output was 4.49 MBpd, leaving a surplus of 1.74 MBpd available for storage.
• Tehran has proposed allowing ships to sail freely through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attack, as long as a deal is reached to prevent renewed conflict.
• According to India's Ministry of External Affairs, Two Indian-flagged vessels carrying crude oil were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri expressed concern to Tehran's ambassador in New Delhi, Mohammad Fathali, and urged him to convey India's views to Iranian authorities, resuming the process of facilitating India-bound ships as soon as possible.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

8th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

Commercial LPG Price Hike — 1st April 2026 (Delhi)

• Commercial LPG prices increased by ₹195.50 per 19-kg cylinder on April 1, 2026. A 19-kg cylinder now costs ₹2,078.50 in Delhi — up from ₹1,883 earlier.
• This is the second monthly increase, following a ₹114.50 rise in March. The hike affects restaurants, hotels, and small businesses. The adjustment indicates that prior increases in international prices, along with possible margin realignments, are still being passed through in the domestic market.
• In comparison, the 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price has increased by only ₹60 (7%), with no change in the latest revision. This indicates a relatively controlled and stable pricing approach for household consumers, in contrast to the continued upward adjustments in the commercial segment.
• International LPG benchmarks have also seen increases over the period, with Mont Belvieu prices rising by ₹110 (25%) and Landed CIF prices by ₹125 (20%) on 1st Apr'26 as compared to 1st Feb'26. However, the magnitude of increase in commercial LPG prices, particularly in absolute terms, remains notably higher than that of domestic cylinders.

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

India’s LPG balance under pressure as Hormuz disruptions persist, with vessel arrivals providing short-term supply relief

• India’s LPG supply–demand balance remains under near-term pressure amid geopolitical disruptions, with domestic demand estimated at 92.6–95.0 KT/day (~33 MMT annually), of which 55–60 KT/day (60–65%) is met through imports and ~35 KT/day from domestic production; notably, ~90% of imports transit through the Strait of Hormuz, creating significant exposure to ongoing disruptions.
• Recent vessel inflows have provided partial relief, with Hellas Gladiator (24 KT, Netherlands) and Gas Jupiter (24 KT, United States) having arrived on March 30 at Ennore Port and Visakhapatnam Port respectively, followed by BW TYR reaching Mumbai on March 31; BW ELM is expected to arrive at Mangaluru on April 1 after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz under Indian Navy escort as part of Operation Urja Suraksha.
• Earlier arrivals of Jag Vasant and Pine Gas (combined 92.6 KT; March 26–27) added roughly one day of national demand cover, along with the previously discharged Shivalik and Nanda Devi cargoes (92.5 KT; March 15–16) offering temporary relief despite persistent structural supply risks.