Impact Assessment of US/Israel-Iran Conflict

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserves — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was established after the 1973 Oil Crisis. Japan, the fourth largest crude importer globally, will release 80 million barrels beginning March 16, 2026.

China and India have additional protection from large volumes of Russia’s floating storage, providing further insulation from near-term supply disruption. The US holds its own commercial and SPR reserves of approximately 850 million barrels.

Event	Year	Release	Scale vs. 2026
First Gulf War	1991	75 mln bbl
Hurricanes Katrina & Rita	2005	60 mln bbl
Libya Civil War	2011	60 mln bbl
Russia–Ukraine War	2022	180 mln bbl
US/Israel–Iran War ★	2026	400 mln bbl

On March 11, 2026, three commercial vessels were struck by projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz, causing fires and damage. No environmental impact has been reported.

• Mayuree Naree — Thailand-flagged bulk carrier
• One Majesty — Japan-flagged container ship
• Star Gwyneth — Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier

Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) can together compensate for an additional 6.5–7.0 MBpd above pre-war export levels, expected to come online within 2 to 5 days.

Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude oil (excluding condensates and other liquids) transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND’25, combined SPR release and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, giving the Trump administration time to assess a longer-term strategic direction.

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of $85/bbl to $110/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass pipeline capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond this band. Price direction will remain highly sensitive to daily conflict developments, SPR drawdown confirmation, and the pace at which GCC bypass capacity comes online.

During this 20–30 day buffer window, US and Israeli forces are expected to continue targeting Iranian naval and military installations in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to retaliate with strikes against Arab Gulf nation assets. The Trump administration is using this period to assess a clearer long-term strategic path forward. Until a definitive war or de-escalation plan emerges, crude prices will remain highly event-driven and volatile within the $85–$110/bbl band.