Impact Assessment of US/Israel-Iran Conflict
Impact of Wars on Aluminium Prices: An Empirical Study
Impact of Wars on Aluminium Prices: An Empirical Study: 16-Mar’26
Historical Price Movements in Aluminium During Major Wars and Implications for the Current Conflict:
Historical wars (since 1982) and its impact on Aluminium prices:
The vertical lines show the starting point of wars, and the post-war price movement is highlighted with red ellipses, which are tabulated in the first table.
Observations:
- Prices witnessed high volatility a few months before the start dates of wars and this continued for the next couple of months.
- The trend prior to war continued even after the start of war for a maximum period of 2 to 3 months, and then witnessed a notable trend reversal for the medium to long term.
- The mean and median magnitude of moves are 13.5% and 10.6%, respectively. Measured from the close of the prior day to the start of war, adding half a standard deviation to the mean translates to a range between USD 3345 and USD 3688, which can be attained in 4 to 6 weeks from the war start date, i.e. 28-Feb’26.
Impact Assessment of US/Israel-Iran Conflict
⚡ US / Israel–Iran War · Crude Market Update
LAST UPDATED: 12th Mar 2026
SPR / IEA — Largest Ever Release
IEA Member Nations Agree to Release 400 Million Barrels — Largest in IEA History
IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 million barrels of Strategic Petroleum Reserves — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was established after the 1973 Oil Crisis. Japan, the fourth largest crude importer globally, will release 80 million barrels beginning March 16, 2026.
China and India have additional protection from large volumes of Russia’s floating storage, providing further insulation from near-term supply disruption. The US holds its own commercial and SPR reserves of approximately 850 million barrels.
| Event | Year | Release | Scale vs. 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Gulf War | 1991 | 75 mln bbl | |
| Hurricanes Katrina & Rita | 2005 | 60 mln bbl | |
| Libya Civil War | 2011 | 60 mln bbl | |
| Russia–Ukraine War | 2022 | 180 mln bbl | |
| US/Israel–Iran War ★ | 2026 | 400 mln bbl |
Global Buffer Reserves
Key Nations’ Supply Cushions at a Glance
IEA SPR Release
400 mln
Barrels · agreed
Japan Release
80 mln
Barrels from Mar 16
US Reserves
~850 mln
Commercial + SPR
China & India
Floating
Russia storage buffer
Strait of Hormuz — Shipping Incident
Three Vessels Struck by Projectiles on March 11, 2026
On March 11, 2026, three commercial vessels were struck by projectiles in and around the Strait of Hormuz, causing fires and damage. No environmental impact has been reported.
• Mayuree Naree — Thailand-flagged bulk carrier
• One Majesty — Japan-flagged container ship
• Star Gwyneth — Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier
Pipeline Infrastructure
Saudi Arabia & UAE Bypass Pipelines to Add 6.5–7.0 MBpd Above Pre-War Levels
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline and the UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) can together compensate for an additional 6.5–7.0 MBpd above pre-war export levels, expected to come online within 2 to 5 days.
Strait of Hormuz
~Two-Thirds of 15 MBpd Hormuz Crude Flow Can Be Offset for 20–30 Days
Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude oil (excluding condensates and other liquids) transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND’25, combined SPR release and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, giving the Trump administration time to assess a longer-term strategic direction.
Crude Price Outlook
Brent Expected to Trade in $85–$110/bbl Range Over the Next 1–2 Weeks
Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of $85/bbl to $110/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass pipeline capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond this band. Price direction will remain highly sensitive to daily conflict developments, SPR drawdown confirmation, and the pace at which GCC bypass capacity comes online.
⚠ Key Price Drivers to Watch
Movement toward $110/bbl is likely if: (1) Iranian retaliation intensifies and further commercial vessels are struck in the Strait, (2) SPR drawdown confirmation is delayed or insufficient to reassure markets, or (3) GCC bypass pipeline ramp-up is slower than expected. Conversely, a de-escalation signal or ceasefire indication would likely push prices back toward the $85–$90/bbl end of the range.
Geopolitics / Strategy
US/Israel Continue Naval Strikes on Iran; Iran Retaliates Against Arab Nations
During this 20–30 day buffer window, US and Israeli forces are expected to continue targeting Iranian naval and military installations in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to retaliate with strikes against Arab Gulf nation assets. The Trump administration is using this period to assess a clearer long-term strategic path forward. Until a definitive war or de-escalation plan emerges, crude prices will remain highly event-driven and volatile within the $85–$110/bbl band.