Commodity Year Book

TransGraph’s Commodity Year Book is the most comprehensive source of commodity profiling, Price Driver Analysis and Latest annual Outlook. Our Commodity Price Outlook is widely appreciated.


Commodity Profiling

Commodity profiling covers comprehensive information on the given commodity which covers almost everything pertaining to that commodity like the:

• Introduction

o Brief history
o Description, classification
o Manufacturing / Processing
o Brief industry applications
o Brief commodity value chain

• Commodity dynamics (Global + three major countries)

o Commodity origination
o Major exporting, importing countries
o Acreage, yield trends / Reserves, recovery rates
o Production & Supply scenarios
o Consumption, Import and Export trends
o Ending stock, days to usage, Inventory levels
o Global commodity balance sheets
o Three major countries balance sheets
o Seasonality of production, consumption
o Weather impact
o Competing commodity trends
o Cost of production trends
o Economy dynamics
o Currency dynamics

• Major Industry analysis

o Application and usage
o Industry growth trends
o Commodity consumption trends
o Competing commodity trends

• Policy

o Major driving policies for the selected three countries
o Major governing bodies and its role

Price Driver Analysis (PDA):

As the name suggests, it gives a detailed focus on all the plausible drivers which influence the price of the commodity. Impact quantification of various variables on prices will be done using various statistical tools. Based on a framework most important price drivers as a whole and quarter wise its importance will be presented. Our PDA exclusively focuses on:

• Price trend assessment

o Past five years historical movements

• Impact assessment

o Production, Consumption trends
o Ending stocks
o Co-relations with other prices series
o Spread studies
o Currency, industry indexes
o GDP, Industry production, Income, etc
o Industry dynamics
o Investments
o Freight trends
o Other commodity specific variables

• Summary of price drivers

o Influencing factors and its impact levels

Annual Outlook

TransGraph has its own method (Mapping the Market Thought) of forecasting price trends. Annual outlook for a commodity will be given based on the latest fundamental, technical and econometric analysis.

• Analysis frameworks

o Fundamental analysis
o Price driver analysis
o Technical analysis
o Elliott wave analysis

• Annual outlook

o Quarter price trends

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“ I am writing to extend my thanks for the research and price forecasting services provided to us on a daily basis by Transgraph. The reports and information whether they are emailed to us daily or sourced via your website portal, are a consistent and reliable source of quality information. Our industry is one where information and its dissemination can help in differentiating between suppliers."

- Scott Yarwood, Sr. Regional Sales Manager, ADM Trading (UK) Ltd.

“ This is to state our appreciation for Transgraph for continuously delivering on its mandate to provide updated and insightful consulting services in the area of commodities and ingredients. I would also like to thank your team that is always in touch with buyers and feeds in relevant information that has been many times useful in decision making. In nutshell, the engagement with Transgraph has been enriching."

- V. Sridhar, Sector Manager, Commodities & Ingredients, Cadbury India Ltd.

“ By helping simulate the risk scenarios beforehand, TransRisk has added immense value to our trading decision making process at the operating level. The scenarios are comprehensive because one is able to view the basis and rollover risks associated with the hedged positions too. TransRisk also serves as good Dashboard for the top management, as it gives exposures, P&L, associated risk, limits all at one place.”

- S Sivakumar, CEO, Agri Business, ITC Limited

“ At risk framework and imputed risk model of TransRisk are definitely forward looking and will enable us to move away from ‘post mortem’ approach. We can take a business decision of pricing our contracts or purchasing in advance after factoring in a quantifiable and acceptable risk instead of trying to find reasons for the breach of limits."
"A flexible and scalable business intelligence that gives exposures, P&L, associated risk, limits all at one place and this decision support system can be integrated with our existing ERP and will avoid duplication of data entry.”

- Jude Magima, ED – Sourcing and Supply Chain, Dabur India Limited

“ Transgraph has showcased that ‘Risk Management’ is an excellent tool which will help any sourcing organization to deliver in any and even during challenging business scenario. They have succeeded in creating a deeper, specific and relevant input to the automotive sector. Highly recommended, the course was extremely detailed but the faculty made it so easy to understand - Top marks.”

- S.R. Rajan, Vice President-Commercial, TVS Srichakra Limited.

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