Impact Assessment of US/Israel-Iran Conflict

Crude Oil Market Update

• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a UAE oil port ablaze and provoking a response from the US military, which destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted missiles and drones. 
• The UAE said its air defenses were engaging missile and drone threats on 05th May'26 evening, as firefighters battled a blaze at a major oil industry zone following a drone attack originating from Iran.
• The Gulf Arab state's foreign ministry said the attacks posed a direct threat to the country's security and reserved the right to respond.
• Iranian state media cited a senior military official saying Iran had no plan to target the UAE, while the UAE's defence ministry said it had intercepted three Iranian missiles over its territorial waters and a fourth crashed into the sea.
• The US President Trump announced the US would assist ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, but the lack of a US-Iran peace deal kept the market supported.
• The OPEC+ group of crude oil exporters agreed to increase output for a third straight month in Jun'26 by 0.19 MBpd, but the decision is largely meaningless due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The remaining members of OPEC+ are signalling that they will continue without UAE, showing that the group remains relevant and most likely believes it will continue to act as a balancing force between supply and demand.

SPR / IEA

IEA member nations have agreed to a coordinated release of 400 mln bbl — the largest emergency SPR release since the IEA was founded after the 1973 Oil Crisis. The US, under the Trump administration, is contributing 172 mln bbl structured as loans to companies with repayment including a premium.

Deliveries are expected to begin reaching the market by the end of next week and will continue over approximately 120 days. The first batch of 86 mln bbl has already been opened for bidding. Japan will released 80 mln bbl beginning 16th Mar'26.

IEA Region-wise Release Breakdown

Key Supply Infrastructure

GCC Bypass Pipelines Running Near Capacity — But Shah Gas Field Ablaze and Fujairah Zone Struck

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is pumping oil at its full capacity of 7 MBpd, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil exports from Yanbu port have reached 5 MBpd, and the country is also exporting 0.70 to 0.90 MBpd of oil products.
• Of approximately 15 MBpd of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz in OND'25, combined SPR releases and bypass pipeline capacity can offset roughly two-thirds — or slightly more — for the next 20 to 30 days, providing the Trump administration a window to assess strategic direction.
• New strikes directly threaten this buffer — Iranian drones struck the UAE's Shah gas field (currently ablaze) and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone on Mar 17. A tanker was also hit near the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia intercepted over a dozen drones; Kuwait and Bahrain sustained additional attacks. These represent the first direct strikes on GCC energy export infrastructure since the conflict began.

Supply Analysis


Supply & Demand Analysis

War Scenarios Point to Global Supply Deficit of 1.35–1.90 MBpd in 2026 and AMJ Quarter Most Severe with a deficit of 3.00 - 4.50 MBpd.

Pre-war, global supply and demand were near-balanced with a modest surplus of +0.55 MBpd projected for 2026. Both conflict scenarios introduce significant supply deficits driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and impacts on Iraq and Kuwait crude production.

• Scenario 1 (Preferred): Exchange of attacks between US/Israel and Iran continuing, leading to severe/significant/complete disruptions of crude oil and its products trade through the Strait of Hormuz, severely impacting Iraq's and Kuwait's crude oil production over the next 3 to 6 months. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.90 MBpd. AMJ quarter most acute at −4.50 MBpd.
• Scenario 2 (Alternate): Partial disruptions of crude oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran not targeting ships and oil tankers moving toward China, India, and select Asian nations outside the Western alliance. Full-year 2026 deficit: −1.35 MBpd. Balance returns to flat by OND '26.

Economic Updates

• On the US front, US retail sales recorded a solid rebound in Feb'26, rising 0.6% MoM and 3.7% on YoY, marking the strongest gain in seven months, supported by a recovery in motor vehicle purchases and seasonal factors. Core retail sales also came in firm at 0.5% MoM, indicating underlying consumption strength, with higher tax refunds playing a key role in sustaining household spending during the period.
• The US manufacturing activity continued to expand, with ISM PMI rising to 52.7 in March, its highest level since Aug'22. That said, the improvement was partly driven by slower supplier deliveries, reflecting supply chain disruptions rather than demand strength, particularly amid shipping constraints and trade frictions. This has also led to a sharp rise in input cost pressures, with the prices paid index jumping significantly, signaling building inflation at the producer level.

Price Outlook

Brent Crude 1M Futures are expected to trade in a range of 90 USD/bbl to 110 USD/bbl over the coming 1 to 2 weeks. The coordinated SPR release and GCC bypass capacity provide a meaningful supply cushion that limits sustained upside beyond these levels.

LPG Market Update

08th Indian-flagged LPG vessel has transited the Strait of Hormuz and reached India

India’s LPG import slump in March'26 signals Gulf disruption impact, triggers strategic shift toward US supply

• India’s LPG import profile shifted sharply in March, with total volumes declining 31.5% MoM to 1,462 KT (down 674 KT), driven by a steep 59.9% drop in Gulf supplies (ex-Iran) to 788 KT (-1,177 KT), reducing their share from 92.0% to 53.9% amid disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• This was partially offset by a surge in imports from the United States, which rose 374% MoM to 533 KT (+421 KT), lifting its share to 36.5%, alongside incremental volumes from Iran (42 KT, +139%), the Russian Federation (32 KT), Indonesia (23 KT, +27.9%), and Argentina (23 KT).
• Despite this rebalancing, the shift toward long-haul cargoes implies higher freight intensity and longer supply chains, reinforcing near-term tightness and upward pressure on delivered LPG costs.

IOCL Price Update — 1 May 2026

• Unchanged: Retail Petrol, Diesel, Domestic LPG (14.2 kg @ Rs 913 in Delhi), ATF for domestic airlines, and PDS Kerosene — covering -80% of petroleum products.
  Revised upward:
  •    19 kg Commercial LPG: +Rs 993 (Delhi: Rs 2,078.50 → Rs 3,071.50; Mumbai: Rs 2,031 → Rs 3,024)
  •    5 kg Free Trade LPG (FTL): +Rs 261 per cylinder.