Impact of Wars on Aluminium Prices: An Empirical Study: 16-Mar’26
Historical Price Movements in Aluminium During Major Wars and Implications for the Current Conflict:
Historical wars (since 1982) and its impact on Aluminium prices:
The vertical lines show the starting point of wars, and the post-war price movement is highlighted with red ellipses, which are tabulated in the first table.
Observations:
- Prices witnessed high volatility a few months before the start dates of wars and this continued for the next couple of months.
- The trend prior to war continued even after the start of war for a maximum period of 2 to 3 months, and then witnessed a notable trend reversal for the medium to long term.
- The mean and median magnitude of moves are 13.5% and 10.6%, respectively. Measured from the close of the prior day to the start of war, adding half a standard deviation to the mean translates to a range between USD 3345 and USD 3688, which can be attained in 4 to 6 weeks from the war start date, i.e. 28-Feb’26.